Friday, December 30, 2022

The Rational for a Proportional System

At this point I have written more than once in favor of adopting a proportional electoral system over our current first-past-the-post (or winner-take-all) system, and even over a ranked choice electoral system. So, I thought it might be a good idea to quickly articulate why my preferences are what they are. To be clear, I do not disfavor a ranked choice system. In fact, I think it is necessary in certain cases when there is not anything to apportion—say in US Senate or Governor elections. And if I had the power to implement a new system of elections in this country with the snap of my fingers, but the only choice was between a ranked choice system and maintaining the status quo, I most definitely would choose the ranked choice system.

Although both a proportional and a ranked choice system are different means to achieve most of the same objectives—increasing ideological representation, increasing voter engagement, and breaking the two-party power structure—ranked choice retains some of the structural advantages for the two parties that exists in our current system. Namely, the two parties have a presence in every state to be competitive in most elections up and down the ballot. This includes donor lists, volunteers, a bench of candidates, relationships with pollsters and advertising agencies, party employees, and anything else needed to run a campaign. This will not necessarily be true of every other party as they may have difficulty even fielding a candidate in every race. The second benefit that the major parties have is name recognition. Voters may know the Libertarian and Green parties, but how many other third-parties can they name? In the 2020 election there were about 90 named third-parties included on ballots across the country. Even if voters recognize the party name, would they know the party's platform? So, even if their primary preference was for a third-party what would voters’ choose as their second choice? Likely the more recognizable candidate/party, which would probably be a Republican or Democrat.

Source: FEDERAL ELECTIONS 2020: Election Results for the U.S. President, the U.S. Senate and the U.S. House of Representatives, Federal Election Commission, Washington, D.C., October 2022

Now you might rightfully point out that most of the structural advantages I just outlined would still be present in a proportional system. However, the last point is where I think these two systems pull apart and a proportional system benefits third parties more. While I can take election results and distribute seats proportionally based on those results, it is more difficult to game-out ranked choice results (and to be fair, I made it easy on myself when apportioning seats by throwing all third-party votes into one bucket which overstates the actual results of any one third-party). This is difficult because while I could make some assumptions about who a voter’s second and third choice may be, voters are idiosyncratic and those assumptions may very well be wrong. Furthermore, when you change the election rules and incentives, voters will change their voting behavior accordingly. To take this one step further, if I were to retroactively apply a ranked choice system to all elections where a majority was not obtained, making assumptions along the way, the results likely would not drastically differ as the two major parties will have a substantial lead—in part because voters were not casting their ballots with a ranked choice system in mind.

With that said, I think we can intuitively work this out. Let’s set up a fairly simple example; there is a state with four districts. The state is roughly split between conservatives and liberals and districts are drawn fairly. After the election is held the vote tally is as follows: 

Under our current system two Republicans and two Democrats are elected to the House of Representatives.

But, as I said earlier, if you change the rules of the election, voters will change their behavior. Let's now assume this same state adopted a ranked choice electoral system. With no third party infrastructures in the first or third districts and no candidate pool to pull from, those two districts remain a race between the Republican and Democrat. So, looking at districts 2 and 4 only, the results of the election are:

After the first round no one has an out right majority, and the third-parties did better—15 points better. But they are still last, so when this goes to the next round and the Libertarian votes in District 2 are distributed to their second choice, the Republican, and the Green votes in District 4 are distributed to their second choice, the Democrat, the outcome of the election will be the same. This state will have two Democratic Representatives and two Republican representatives.

This is a simplistic model for illustrative purposes, but we can see how this has played out in reality. Maine adopted a ranked choice electoral system in 2018. Since then it has held two elections for the US Senate and six for US House (three election years for two House seats); electing an Independent and a Republican to the Senate, and two Democratic Representatives each year. In fact, only once in those eight elections has a ballot gone to the second round—on the first ballot for district 2 in 2018 no candidate had a majority and so an instant runoff was held between the Republican and Democratic candidates who had received the most votes. It should also be noted that Angus King is the Independent Senator who was elected in 2018. However, he was an incumbent who previously had identified as an Independent and was caucusing with the Democrats. As such, I do not think we can credit his electoral victory in 2018 to the ranked choice system. In 2022 Alaska joined Maine in adopting a ranked choice system. In that election Alaska sent a Democrat to the House of Representatives and a Republican to the Senate.

Let’s return one more time to our hypothetical state. This time the state has gotten rid of its districts in favor of one, multi-member district with seats distributed proportionately by party to the percentage of votes won. This time the results are as follows:

Based on these proportions, Democrats are awarded two seats and Republicans and Libertarians are awarded one each. Under the other two systems third-parties may have had support in all districts but may not have been able to field a candidate to run in every district. Further, a third-party may have broad support in a state, support enough to win a seat under a proportional system, but not enough in any one district to win a majority.

We should also take a minute to consider what the implications of this are for voters. Voters in Districts 1 and 3 that might support a third-party candidate are forced to either decide between voting for a candidate for one of the parties running or not to vote at all. These voters rightly feel under-represented because they are presented with a false dilemma. The only reason this is any dilemma at all is because our winner-take-all system forces us into the false choice between two ideologies; conservatism as represented by the Republican party and liberalism as represented by the Democratic party. The American electorate is much more diverse than this dichotomy.

The outcome between our second hypothetical and our last hypothetical illustrates how, I believe, a proportional system is more potent in enabling third-parties to gain representation within our government. I should point out, in fairness, that in Maine the third-party candidates did not gain enough votes (even when combined) to win a seat under a proportional system, suggesting an optimism in my final hypothetical. Though, to repeat my refrain, voter behavior may change to a sufficient degree for a third-party to win representation if Maine were to adopt a proportional system instead of a ranked choice system. 

When we are considering electoral systems we should not think of them as isolated systems in their individual silos. More voters turn out to vote in Presidential election years, but those additional voters are not only voting for the President, they also cast their vote in Senate and House elections, and on down the ballot. Turnout is generally higher. It stands to reason then, that if we were able to increase voter turnout for one branch of government due to increased representation resulting from a more responsive electoral system, then turnout overall would increase.

As I stated earlier, I believe a ranked choice system is better than our current system. Given time, I may be proven wrong by the electoral results from Maine and Alaska as parties, candidates, and voters adapt to the new system. I hope I am wrong. I hope we begin to see more diverse representation from these states, and as a result increased voter turnout.

It is for the very reason that individual elections affect one another that my ideal would be to adopt a proportional system for state general assemblies and the House of Representatives, and a ranked choice system for Governors and the US Senate. I believe these systems would reinforce one another.

Proportional systems would give third-parties a better shot at gaining representation within the government. By merely winning an election third-parties would gain a credibility with voters that they have struggled to gain in the past. Winning an election would also increase the profile of third-parties so the party and its platform are more familiar to voters and voters would actually be able to see how the party's ideas translate into practical governance. 

When it comes time to cast a ranked choice ballot voters are more familiar with third-parties, their candidates, and their platform. Voters also view certain third-parties as more credible after the party has won representation for itself in an election and voters can see how the party operates in the government. Perhaps, then, after the ballots are counted, third-parties have a larger share of votes in the first round and are not the first party eliminated from the ballots. Maybe third-parties are also voters second and third choices above Republicans and Democrats. And so, maybe third-parties win more ranked choice elections.

What I am describing is a virtuous cycle. As third-parties win more elections they become more credible and known. As those parties become more credible and known they win more elections. The more elections that third-parties win the more ideologies and perspectives are represented. As more ideologies and perspectives are represented within the government citizens begin to see themselves better represented in their government and observe more responsive elections. As this perception increases more citizens begin to participate and voter turnout increases. With increased voter turnout, support for third-parties increases, and so on.

But to kick off this cycle something is needed to breakthrough the two parties hold on power. I do not think a ranked choice system is strong enough to do this. Although I believe a proportional system would be able to do this, it has limited applications—you cannot apportion votes for a single Senate seat or Governorship. And while I think a proportional system would still have an effect on these elections, the effect would inherently be limited because the candidate with the plurality of votes would win the election, reinforcing the two party system. Both are needed if we truly want to change our system for the better. 

Monday, December 26, 2022

Cleveland's Problem with Democracy

There is an old saying, “all politics is local”, but increasingly politics has been nationalized. This increasingly nationalized politics has been attributed, at least in part, to the decline of local journalism. With fewer options for news coverage people replace their lost local options with national news organizations like The New York Times, Wall Street Journal, MSNBC, or Fox News. In the event that these outfits do cover local news it is local for them—The New York Times will cover New York political news, but not a mayoral race in Sioux Falls, South Dakota. 

The rise in national media, and corresponding decline in local journalism, has quite a few effects beyond the nationalization of politics as Joshua Darr writes for FiveThirtyEight, “in the absence of local news, people are more likely to vote for one party up and down the ballot”. Not only are voters becoming more partisan in their political preferences, but voters’ views have become calcified as they are less likely to switch their vote between parties from one election to the next. And the effects do not end there; Darr continues, explaining that, “a growing body of research has found that government is worse off when local news suffers. In fact, inadequate local news has been linked to more corruption, less competitive elections, and weaker municipal finances and a prevalence of party-line politicians who don’t bring benefits back to their districts”.


Keeping the spirit of the old saying alive, I wanted to take a look at local politics. Specifically in my hometown of Cleveland, Ohio. Cleveland, and Ohio more broadly, was not spared from these national trends. According to the UNC Hussman School of Journalism and Media, from 2004 to 2019 Ohio lost 39% of its newspapers and saw a 51% decrease in circulation. Ohio does not have any counties without a newspaper, but has 38 with only a single newspaper. Perhaps predictably then, Ohio sees its highest voter turnout for Presidential elections—an average of 69% turnout from 2000 to 2020. This falls to 59% for Ohio US Senator, down to 57% for Ohio US Representatives, down to 48% for Ohio Governor, and down to 54% for the Ohio General Assembly. Note that the General Assembly sees a higher turnout than Governor because half of the General Assembly elections fall during Presidential election years when turnout is generally higher and Governor is always during non-presidential years—the General Assembly average for non-Presidential years in the Ohio House is 46% and 44% in the Ohio Senate.

Ohio has also, to some extent, seen calcification. In modern American politics Ohio has been considered a swing state and a bellwether for Presidential elections. From 1964 to 2016 no President had won the White House without winning Ohio; the longest streak of any state. That streak came to an end when Ohioans cast their ballots for Donald Trump in 2020, beating Joe Biden in the state by 8% but losing the Presidency. 

Ohio has also certainly seen its fair share of corruption during this period. From the State's unconstitutional school funding system to the $117 million dollar charter school choice fraud scheme; to the $60 million bribery scheme involving First Energy and Ohio Speaker of the House, Larry Householder to pass a bill to bail out the energy company; to Ohio's redistricting process which resulted Ohioans voting in 2022 using unconstitutional district maps after the Ohio Supreme Court ruled the state district maps unconstitutional five times and federal district maps unconstitutional twice.



Cuyahoga County, where Cleveland is located, has lost ten newspapers since 2004 according to UNC. With only five papers remaining, the county has one daily paper—The Cleveland Plain Dealer/Cleveland.com. However, that would have to be considering its electronic, non-union version, Cleveland.com. The Plain Dealer has cut back its print distribution to Wednesday and Friday – Sunday. What’s more, The Plain Dealer was the home of Local 1 Newspaper Guild, the first newspaper guild in the country, before it fired the remaining union staff in the spring of 2020. 

Consequently, Cleveland has seen corruption in its local governments as well—as council-people improperly awarded city contracts or misappropriated funds, and corruption and fraud was uncovered in County Executive Office.

There is a silver-lining though, non-profit newsrooms like The Land and Signal Cleveland, and the launch of a local network of Marshall Project, have stepped up to fill the void left by the loss of local legacy news organizations.

The broader effects of the decline in local news, and subsequent nationalization of politics, has been felt in Cleveland as well. From 2010 to 2020 Cleveland’s average voter turnout in Presidential elections is 58%. That average falls to 33% in non-Presidential years. Local elections in Cleveland fall even further to an average of 22%. See Figure 1 in the support linked below for further details.

A couple important items to note about Cleveland elections. First, Cleveland elects its Mayor and its full 17-member City Council on the same cycle to four-year terms. These elections are held on odd years, where the state and federal elections are held on even years. Second, until the most recent Mayoral election in 2021, Frank Jackson had been re-elected four times and had served as Mayor for 16 years. One might reasonably assume that by the time of Mayor Jackson’s fourth election in 2019 voters’ enthusiasm would have waned and turnout would have fallen, weighing down the average turnout above, but turnout was 23% in 2021 just as it was in 2019. Also worth noting, turnout in the Mayoral elections is slightly higher than turnout for City Council members.

As the discussion above would suggest, I think part of this can be explained by the decline of local journalism in Cleveland and the associated broader national trends. However, I’m not sure a 36% differential in turnout between Presidential elections and local elections in Cleveland is entirely explained by a decline in local news coverage.

I have also looked at the effects of gerrymandering in Ohio. Earlier I pointed to the decline in local journalism to explain the decrease in voter turnout as you move down the ballot. What that does not explain, however, is why Ohio’s turnout at 69% is consistently below the national average of 86% when the decline in local journalism is being observed nation-wide. It is true that gerrymandering is pervasive in this country as well, though many states have adopted independent, non-partisan redistricting commissions to prevent gerrymandering in their state. According to FiveThirtyEight redistricting in eight states had an independent commission control the 2022 redistricting process. In another nine states control was split between the two parties. That means that approximately 42% of districts were not drawn by partisans from a single party. For the most part, where an independent commission controlled the redistricting process fairer maps were drawn, and more competitive districts which leads to higher turnout.

Looking at Ohio’s four largest cities—Cincinnati, Cleveland, Columbus, and Toledo—voter turnout is lower than statewide turnout, year-to-year (Figure 2). This is despite generally higher registration rates in these cities (Figure 3). Likely due, in part, to voter disenfranchisement resulting from gerrymandering. But because there is rarely ever just one cause is complex systems, the increasing nationalization of politics also likely has an impact. What political attention is not taken up by national politics the State has seemingly gleefully stepped in to claim. From local ordinances on guns, fracking, traffic cameras, and residency and construction projects the State Government has ignored the home rule provision within the State Constitution which is supposed to give local governments the latitude to self-govern, and overturned these local ordinances. When this happens repeatedly, in cities across the state, and for a broad spectrum of laws—including the seemingly mundane and inconsequential laws like a flavored tobacco ban—voters could be forgiven for getting the impression that local governments hold no real power in the state and, therefore, local elections are of little consequence.

While I do believe all of these factors play a part in the depressed voter turnout in Cleveland, still, I do not believe they are enough to fully explain what is going on with turnout in Cleveland. According to UNC each of the counties of Cincinnati, Columbus, and Toledo have lost local news rooms and each only has one remaining daily newspaper. Each city has also been similarly subjected to gerrymandering by the Ohio General Assembly and overreach by the state government's violation of home rule. However, when comparing voter turnout in Cleveland to its peer cities it lags behind (Figure 2) despite having comparable registration rates (Figure 3). This suggests something unique is going on in Cleveland.

As mentioned earlier, Cleveland elects its Mayor and City Council in off-year elections. Moving the municipal elections to correspond with statewide and national elections would almost certainly help improve turnout in the Mayoral and City Council elections. However, the issue, as I see it, is a bit more subtle; after all, Cleveland is already lagging its peers in turnout for statewide and national elections and those peer cities also hold their municipal elections in off-years. The difference is, Cleveland only elects its Mayor and City Council. Cincinnati, Columbus, and Toledo also elect a City Attorney and a City Auditor. Furthermore, 93% of school boards in the US are elected rather than appointed, but all nine members of the school board of Cleveland Metropolitan School District are appointed by the Cleveland Mayor.

There is an irony here. Municipal elections in Cleveland are seemly unimportant because Clevelanders are only voting for the Mayor and a Council person, whereas if they were also voting for a City Attorney, City Auditor, Police Chief, School Board, or some other positions within the government the election may seem more consequential. However, because Clevelanders are not able to elect these officials that power is retained by the Mayor—power that is concentrated in this position making the selection of the Mayor that much more important. If Clevelanders select an incompetent Mayor who, in turn, selects an inept City Attorney, City Auditor, or Police Chief and appoints unqualified School Board Members, that has a much more far-reaching effect than if Clevelanders were to elect an incompetent Mayor while selecting qualified candidates down ballot.

Furthermore, Cleveland has a history of undemocratic norms and traditions within its politics. Cleveland has long been a Democratic city, and behind the elected officials runs a political machine with a few individuals pulling the levers of power. The leaders of this Democratic Machine select their preferred candidate for County Executive, Cleveland Mayor, Congressional Representative, or whatever other position they sought to fill and the establishment would fall inline behind. Endorsements would follow, PACs would be established, fundraisers planed, money raised, speeches broadcast in support of the selected candidate. Outgoing Cuyahoga County Executive Armond Budish, ex-Mayor Frank Jackson, and ex-Congresswoman Marcia Fudge were all beneficiaries of this Machine. However, Justin Bibb defeated the Machine's preferred candidate, Kevin Kelley, to become the current Mayor of Cleveland. And when the Machine failed to coalesce behind a candidate to run against Chris Ronayne for County Executive, Ronayne won that election. Though only a couple of elections over a few years time, these recent events hopefully suggest the collapse of the Democratic Machine in Cleveland in favor of a more democratic process.

Cleveland City Council has its own set of undemocratic tendencies. One such norm; if a Council Member vacates their seat in the second half of their term the Member will recommend their replacement to serve out the remainder of their term for appointment by the Council instead of holding a special election to fill the vacancy. Phyllis Cleveland did this when she recommended Delores Gray to fill her remaining term representing Ward 5 in May of 2021 and Matt Zone did this when he recommended Jenny Spencer to serve his remaining term representing Ward 15 in September of 2020. When the vacancy comes in the first half of the Member's term the member still recommends a replacement for appointment by the Council, however, a special election will be held the following November. This is the case for Brian Mooney's recommended replacement, Danny Kelly.

This matters because incumbency comes with electoral benefits. For one, it likely means an easier primary election for the recommended replacement who has, at least, the implicit endorsement of party establishment. Second, a current councilperson will likely have higher name-recognition due to their position on city council. In a low-information election—which local Cleveland elections are due to the state of local media—name-recognition is a benefit which a potential challenger likely does not have and will likely struggle to gain.

In addition to council members selecting their heir to inherit their seat, City Council has been closed to Clevelanders. Constituents were able to contact their Council Members directly, and meetings were open to the public. However, for most of the existence of City Council Clevelanders have been unable to make public comments during City Council meetings. That finally changed in October 2021.

The opening of City Council to public comment at least appears to be the opening of the Cleveland government to broader civic involvement. The new Mayor of Cleveland, Justin Bibb, has also seemed to embrace citizen involvement in the government. During his campaign he publicly supported Issue 24 which would create a civilian oversight board of the city police department. Mayor Bibb also restarted the Urban Forestry Commission that had been defunct since the early 2000s, which includes three seats on the 15 member board for residents. Advocate groups have also been pushing for the adoption of a participatory budgeting process, specifically as it relates to federal stimulus dollars distributed in response to COVID-19, though there have been no concrete steps toward making this a reality.

While improvements have been made, the take away here is the city government has not only not asked, but not welcomed civic engagement from the residents of the city. One could point blame to the national and statewide factors discussed above; and for the most part I would agree! But it should be no surprised that when it comes time for Clevelanders to vote in municipal elections less than a quarter turn out when the city government is dismissive of its constituents. Cleveland has a weak culture of civic engagement, and that starts with the foundation of local elections—this is where government is supposed to be most responsive and citizens can be heard and see the effects of their petitions.

Cleveland is faced with more than a few difficult problems it needs to address; it is one of the poorest cities in the nation and one of the most racially segregated. If we hope to solve these problems equitably and fairly then those who are adversely affected by the status quo will need to have their voices heard, their experiences seen, and their perspectives understood. One of the best way we can do this is to democratize our city government so that it is open for everyone so those in power can hear, and can see, and can understand all of their constituents. 

Sunday, December 11, 2022

Ohio Gerrymandered: A Decline into Single Party Rule

The Problem:

It is December of 2022 and it has been an eventful year, politically, for Ohio. The first national election after the decennial census will invariably generate additional attention as map makers work to draw new districts for the upcoming election—whether it is partisans in the state legislature, a non-partisan board, or a bi-partisan commission; as was the case for the first time in Ohio.

You see, after the 2010 census Republican’s held control of the Ohio legislature and so controlled the redistricting process. With that power they carved up Democratic territory in northeast Ohio and in the city of Columbus
and its surrounding suburbscracking and packing districts to maximize the number of Republican held seats in the State Senate, State House, and US House. One particularly egregious example was Ohio’s newly drawn District 9 which was designed to pit incumbent Democratic Representatives Marcy Kaptur and Dennis Kucinich against one another, eliminating a Democratic seat in the process. This new district, which spanned from Toledo to Cleveland along the shore of Lake Erie, was given the name “Snake on the Lake”. Fun fact about this district, it is technically not contiguous when Lake Erie water levels are high!

In response to this flagrant abuse of power, Ohio citizens expressed support for amendments to the State Constitution to reform the redistricting process. In 2015 an amendment was passed to move redistricting power for state legislative maps from the legislature to a bipartisan commission with 71% support. By 2017, the League of Women Voters, along with other groups, gained the necessary signatures to put forward an additional amendment to be voted on by Ohioans during the 2018 mid-term election. However, because the political environment was looking tough for Republicans, and seeing that redistricting reform was likely to be adopted in some form, Republican’s in the state legislature cut a deal with Democrats to put forward an amendment of their own for citizens to vote on during the 2018 primary. It is important to understand that citizen led amendments can only come forward for a vote during general elections; however, legislatively proposed amendments can be voted on during primaries—allowing Republicans to get ahead of the citizen led amendment and retain control of the process. Ohioans turned out and passed the amendment overwhelmingly; 1.2 million people voted for the amendment, which was 75% of those who voted. Readers should put a pin in this, thresholds for amendments (and particularly primary amendments) will come up later, so it is worth keeping these 71% and 75% thresholds front of mind.

So, what did these amendments do? As mentioned above, the 2015 amendment turned over the process of redistricting state legislative maps from the legislature to seven-member bipartisan commission consisting of the Governor, Auditor, and Secretary of State, as well as one member appointed by each of the Senate President, Speaker of the House, Senate Minority Leader, and House Minority Leader.

The 2018 amendment further reformed the redistricting process, this time for US House districts. The amendment changed the threshold for approval from a simple majority to three-fifths and requiring support from at least half the members of both major parties. If a map could not be agreed to then the process would be handed over to the seven-member commission created by the earlier amendment that is responsible for drawing state legislative maps. At this stage at least two minority-party members would have to agree to adopt the new maps. If the commission fails to come to an agreement as well, the redistricting process is handed back over to the legislature for approval by simple majority, however support from one-third of both parties would be required. At this point, if the two parties are unable to come to an agreement after three efforts at compromise, the legislature can pass a map with a simple majority; however, this map will only be valid for four years at which time this process would start again. The 2018 amendment also includes restrictions on how often counties and local governments can be split in order to promote compact districts. It further declares that maps must not unduly favor or disfavor a political party or its incumbents.

The 2015 and 2018 amendments seemed like the State had adopted good processes for redistricting; promoting and incentivizing bipartisanship, and setting limitations on how districts can actually be drawn. However, the final step in the 2018 amendment is its fatal flaw. This allows the majority party in power to pass gerrymandered maps and revise those maps every four years! 

In 2022 Democrats were expected to win only two of fifteen US House seats. They ended up winning five. Democrat Greg Landsman unseated incumbent Republican Steve Chabot in southern Ohio’s district 1 that includes Cincinnati. Marcy Kaptur—remember her? Republicans eliminated a Democratic seat by combining her district with another Democratic district and they returned in 2020 in an attempt to finish the job. Marcy beat Republican challenger J.R. Majewski. Lastly, Democrat Emilia Sykes defeated Republican Madison Gesiotto Gilbert to represent Ohio’s 13th district that includes Akron.

This in a year when Republicans swept statewide elections, including the US Senate seat, and Governor Mike DeWine defeated his opponent by 26 points. Part of this comes down to candidate quality; Majewski’s campaign was riddled with scandals and neither Majewski or Gilbert had previous elected experience. On the other hand, their opponents were known entities in their respective districts. Marcy Kapture has served in the US House of Representatives since 1983, making her the longest-serving women in the US House. Emilia Sykes has served in the State House since she took her father, Vernon Sykes', seat in 2015
and served as Minority Leader from 2019 to 2021. Steve Chabot’s defeat, however, cannot be explained by candidate quality as he was a 13 term Representative of District 1, serving from 1995 to 2009 and 2011 to 2023. The changing demographics of Cincinnati might explain Chabot’s defeat, but DeWine carried Hamilton County by 3 points.

The point being, Democrats won these three races by an average of 8 points; there is every reason to believe Republicans will try to draw these Democrats out of office again in four years.

But I am getting ahead of myself. We should look at the redistricting process that took place this year before looking forward to elections four years from now! I guess I also spoiled the ending of the story; bipartisan maps could not be agreed to and so four-year maps were adopted, but how did we get here?

The redistricting process begins with the decennial census. The most recent census began on April 1, 2020, which corresponded with lock-downs across the country in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. The pandemic, along with interference from the Trump administration, resulted in a disorganized and chaotic 2020 census. Given these issues, the release date for census results was postponed from March 31, 2021 to September 30, 2021.

In fairness to the redistricting officials, the delayed release of official results meant that they lost six months that they could have otherwise been working on drawing districts. This meant that officials had to rush to get districts drawn and in place to allow candidates to register in their respective districts for the upcoming primary on May 3, 2022. However, the state legislature could have decided to push back the primary and registration dates to give themselves more time to complete the map making process (readers, pin another one).

The long and short of Ohio’s redistricting process in 2022 is this; Republicans who held five of the seven seats on the redistricting commission controlled the process. The commission was made up of Republican Governor Mike DeWine, Auditor Keith Faber, Secretary of State Frank LaRose, Senate President Matt Huffman, and Speaker of the House Bob Cupp; and Democratic Senator Vernon Sykes and House Minority Leader Allison Russo. 

These five Republican members rammed through five different sets of state legislative maps, locking the Democratic members out of the process almost entirely. Why five maps? Because five times voting rights groups took their case before the Ohio Supreme Court who found the state legislative maps were unconstitutional. The Ohio Supreme Court found that the state’s federal legislative maps were unconstitutional twice as well, though voting rights advocates dropped their suit against the second map due to the upcoming election. Why didn’t the commission draw a sixth state legislative map? Because the US District Court’s Southern District of Ohio issued an order that the commission’s Map 3 was to be used in the upcoming election, meaning that the Republicans on the commission could simply ignore the State Supreme Court and use their preferred map.

To add a bit of flavor to this saga. After the court invalidated the commissions second attempt at a map, the members of the commission were called to appear before the court to argue why they should not be held in contempt. During this hearing Governor DeWine, Secretary of State LaRose, and Auditor Faber made a startling admission; House Speaker Cupp and Senate President Huffman control the budgets and employ the Republican map-making experts, which effectively meant that these two men were in control of the entire map making process. Around this same time the commission received aid from Ohioans who submitted their own versions of district maps, though ultimately the commission was not receptive to the submissions. After the third set of maps were rejected, the commission hired two independent map makers to aid them in drawing fair maps for their fourth submission. The commission declined to accept the independent map makers map, instead submitting another version of a Republican drawn map. When this was rejected requiring a fifth submission the Republicans opted to not draw a new map at all and instead resubmit the previously rejected Map 3.

As this process drew on Republicans grew increasingly frustrated and began calling for the impeachment of Chief Justice Maureen O’Connor over her decisive votes to reject the commissions' maps. Among those entertaining Chief Justice O'Connor's impeachment; Secretary of State and commission member Frank LaRose. Republicans were silent, however, while Justice Pat DeWine
son to Governor and commission member Mike DeWinerefused to recuse himself from the lawsuits against the redistricting commission, and by extension his father. The difference, presumably, being that Republicans were happy with how Pat was voting, but not Chief Justice O’Connor.

If you thought I was simply being an alarmist when I raised concerns that Republicans would try again to draw districts to eliminate the three Democrats that won upsets in 2022, consider this; the key vote in the 4-3 Ohio Supreme Court’s decision to overturn the Republican gerrymandered maps was cast by Chief Justice Maureen O’Connor, a Republican, joining with the three Democrats on the bench. She was term-limited out of the court and replaced by another Republican, Justice Sharron Kennedy. Governor DeWine will appoint a Republican Justice to fill the vacancy left by Justice Kennedy meaning that Republicans will maintain their 4-3 majority on the Ohio Supreme Court, but Justice O'Connor's swing vote in these cases will be gone. The result being, Republican in the legislature will have nothing to check their blatant power grab in future redistricting efforts.

Oh, and because the commission was unable to draw fair maps, Ohio held two separate primaries in 2022. The first on May 3 and the second on August 2 for state legislative candidates. The second primary cost Ohio tax payers more than $30 million dollars.

The Effect:

Now then, we are caught up to the 2022 election where Ohioans went to the polls to vote using unconstitutional State Senate, State House, and US House maps. We have identified the problem—gerrymandering. And despite Ohioans’ best efforts to try and fix the problem, Republicans flaunted their power to ignore the will of the citizens they were elected to represent and went on gerrymandering. Before we get to the solution(s), I’d like to first take a look at the effects. It may help frame our later discussion.

Since the 1991 election Republicans have enjoyed control over both the House and Senate of the Ohio General Assembly, with the brief intermission of a Democratically controlled State House for one session after the 2007 election. Similarly, the Governor of Ohio has been held by a Republican since George Voinovich was elected to the office in 1989—noting the exception of the single four-year term of Ted Strickland from 2007 to 2011. This control over the legislature and executive branches gave Republicans control over three redistricting cycles; 2000, 2010, and now 2020.

The results of those electoral successes in the early 1990s beget later successes. We can quibble over how productive or successful Republicans have been in governing over their tenure, what I do not think is in doubt is that Republican success in Ohio has less to do with governance and everything to do with control over the redistricting process. But let’s look at some data to parse this out.

I will be looking at elections since 2000 as this the first time Republicans had the opportunity to fully control the redistricting process. In statewide elections during this period Republicans have, on average, won 51% of the vote to Democrats 47%. Both parties had an average margin of victory of 12%-13%. What this translates to in electoral outcomes is Republicans winning the Governor’s office 80% of the time, and a US Senate seat and the Presidential popular vote 2/3rds of the time.

So, when looking at results at the statewide level, Republicans are clearly outperforming Democrats, but not dramatically. I bring up the statewide election results for two reasons. First, the statewide results show that Democrats can, and have, won with popular support in Ohio and so are more competitive than the district level results may suggest. Second, though gerrymandering does not directly affect statewide elections by diluting or concentrating votes, it does have a knock-on effects on voters’ willingness to turnout to vote. Let’s test this claim a bit though.

Ohio’s voter participation in Presidential election years since 2000 is around 70%. This is well below the national average voter turnout of 86% during the same period. Even at 86% of registered voters, I would argue that voter turnout in this country is too low. In fact I have argued elsewhere that electoral participation in this country is suppressed, in large part, by disengaged voters who describe their reasons for not voting as they were “not interested, felt vote would not make a difference” or “did not like candidates or campaign issues”. In gerrymandered districts voters may not have more than one candidate to chose from, or may not believe their candidate has a legitimate chance of winning the election. In either case the voter may not like the candidate(s) or believe their vote will make a difference and instead chooses not to vote.

A quick aside—another significant reason respondents say they do not vote is voter restrictions. And with control of the state legislature Republicans have enacted the most aggressive voter-purge system in the country where a voters' registration is removed from the rolls if they fail to vote in two consecutive elections. In the current lame duck session of the Ohio General Assembly, Republicans are considering a bill limiting drop box locations, shortening the time-frame for requesting and returning early ballots, and requiring a photo ID to vote. All under the guise of preventing voter fraud despite Republican Secretary of State, Frank LaRose, reassuring Ohio voters that Ohio elections are secure.

But let’s set voter restrictions to the side and return again to gerrymandering, and specifically continue testing the supposition that gerrymandering can hurt the top of the ticket by suppressing voter turnout down ballot. We have already seen that voter turnout in Ohio is lower than the national average for Presidential elections.

Sticking with statewide elections; Ohio turnout of US Senate elections drops off a bit from the Presidential average to 59%. If instead we look at only Presidential election years, US Senate voter turnout is a comparable 68%—though still below the national average. In non-Presidential election years Senate voter turnout is 55%. Turnout for Governor elections drops even further to 48%—note that Ohio never votes for governor during presidential years when turnout is the highest. There are a lot of potential explanations for why turnout in Ohio is lower than the national average (see enacted voter restrictions above), but gerrymandering should be seriously considered as suppressing and disenfranchising voters.

Looking now at district level elections we see further drop off in participation. Average turnout for US Representative elections is 65% during Presidential election years, and 48% in non-Presidential election years. This is 3% and 7% lower than Senate election participation in Presidential and non-Presidential election years, respectively. The average voter participation rate continues to drop when looking at state district elections. An average 46% and 44% of voters turnout for the Ohio House and Ohio Senate, respectively. Though voter turnout for the Ohio House and Ohio Senate does increase to 62% and 63%, respectively, during Presidential election yearsagain, below the national average voter participation rate in Presidential elections. This means that when Ohioans are coming out to vote in Presidential election years, they are choosing not to cast a ballot for State Senators or State Representatives. When its not a Presidential election year, fewer voters are turning up to vote at all. See Figure 1 in the linked support below for further detail.

“Felt [my] vote would not make a difference”. That was one of the responses citizens gave for not voting. In Ohio from 2000 to 2022 an average of only seven State House districts changed parties. That is only 32 districts of 99 over the course of eight elections; or, in other words, 4% of general elections for Ohio State Representatives being of consequence—most elections being decided during primaries. Further, only 18 of these districts changed more than once during this period. Note that I excluded the election years 2002, 2012, and 2022 as these are outlier elections with changes in elected representation due to redistricting and not voter preference. See Figure 2 for additional detail.

Beyond just uncompetitive districts where the primaries are more important than the general election, in many cases voters do not have a choice between multiple candidates. This is not an issue in the statewide races for Governor or US Senate, or even really for the US House of Representatives. However, on average there are 16 districts a year with only one candidate running in the Ohio House and three a year in the Ohio Senate. This is an issue for both parties, though Republicans are running unopposed slightly more often. Which should not be surprising since they are drawing districts that favor their candidates. See Figure 3 for additional detail.

So, what is the result of these unopposed candidates and unshifting district affiliations? Well, based on voter share it means that Republicans are holding an average of about 2.5 more seats in the US House and Ohio Senate and 7 more in the Ohio House than they would under fair maps. It means that Democrats are holding an average of roughly 2.5 fewer seats in the US House and Ohio Senate and 6 fewer in the Ohio House. It means that Republicans can win a majority of seats without winning a majority of the popular vote; in 2000 and 2006 in the US House, in 2002 and 2018 in the Ohio Senate, and in 2006 and 2012 in the Ohio House. It also means that third-parties have been under represented in the Ohio House by a seat. See Figure 4 for additional details.

This last point, I think, is very important. Voters do not neatly fall into one of two camps; Conservative or Liberal. Voters have idiosyncratic beliefs developed from a wide range of lived experiences, and our electoral system is not representing that diversity of beliefs.

This is the underlying issue. Redistricting is preventing Ohioans from being adequately and accurately represented in our legislature at all levels. And because of this, would be voters are discouraged; whether its because there is only one candidate to vote for in their district, because the district is gerrymandered and the outcome of the general election was determined during the primary, or because voters feel under represented—because in a lot of cases they are! And so, Ohioans are staying home. They are choosing not to participate in a system that is not working for them. And the extent to which they are staying home is greater than the voter participation rates above would suggest! Those rates are based off of registered voters, not all voting aged citizens.

The Solution:

Voting rights groups, many of the same groups that pushed for the original reforms, have once again taken up the cause to reform Ohio’s redistricting process. This time advocating for an independent redistricting commission. The hope being that with an independent, and non-partisan, redistricting commission self-serving partisan actors will be removed from the process so that fair (and constitutional) maps may be drawn for Ohio voters.

However, Republicans are again trying to get ahead of redistricting reform; this time by amending the threshold for citizen led ballot initiatives. Secretary of State, Frank LaRose, is backing a proposal to increase the threshold for adopting ballot issues from 50% to 60%; arguing that “something as serious as amending our constitution should really demand the kind of consensus necessary to get 60%”. Keep in mind that the Republican General Assembly is trying to pass this legislation during the lame duck period between the general election and the beginning of the next legislative session. Further, the Republican General Assembly that is proposing this amendment does not have support of more than 60% of Ohio voters, despite gerrymandering! Ironically it will also take 50% of voters to raise the threshold to pass future amendments to 60%.

During hearings on the proposal, co-sponsor Rep. Brian Stewart said, “we’re not trying to make amending the Constitution impossible. We’re simply trying to require that you—in a diverse state of 11-plus million people—that you get more than 50% of the 25% that might show up to vote in a sleepy May primary.” If you remember, it is only legislative ballot initiatives that can be brought for a primary vote, not civilian initiatives. So, Brian is adding another layer of irony on this proposal as he wants to amend the Ohio Constitution in the exact way he says we should not be amending the Constitution. What’s more, Brian ran unopposed in the 2022 general election, which means he was elected in a "sleepy primary". A primary where he also ran unopposed and still only received 0.32% of votes in his district!

I alluded to my solution above, I would propose that Ohio should do away with all districts and adopt a proportional system for allocating seats to parties. I believe a proportional system for distributing Electoral College votes, US Representative seats, Ohio Senate seats, and Ohio House seats, along with a ranked choice system for the US Senate would vastly improve representation in Ohio. I have laid out my arguments in detail for a proportional system here and a ranked choice system here, so I will not fully rehash them. In summary, this would eliminate the ability of partisan actors to gerrymander for their own gain. It would also increase ideological diversity of representation as third-party candidates have legitimate odds at holding office. You can refer to my analysis in Figure 4 for more detail. I should note that when performing my analysis, I did group all third-party votes together, so the percentage of any one party is likely overstated. However, I believe that in a system where these candidates have a legitimate chance of holding office and voters view casting ballots for third-parties not as throw-away or spoiler votes, their vote share will increase. Further, success begets success, and as third-parties increase their representation they will draw more support.

Whether it is adopting an independent redistricting commission or instituting a proportional and ranked choice system, the status quo of elections in Ohio is untenable. Republicans in the state have not been accountable to voters for too long, and electoral accountability is a necessary condition for democracy. Take from that what you will.

Data:

Saturday, April 9, 2022

Missile Defense and US-Soviet Détente: Richard Nixon and Henry Kissinger’s Pursuit of Peace, 1969-1972

    Then Vice President Richard Nixon traveled to the Soviet Union in 1959, leading up to President Dwight D. Eisenhower’s second attempt at détente with the Soviet Union. On this trip Nixon met with Soviet First Secretary Nikita Khrushchev. Together they traveled to an American Exhibition, where “the kitchen debate” took place. During this debate Khrushchev, who felt threatened by the presentation of the standard of living of the American middle class, became increasingly hostile towards Nixon. Responding to Khrushchev’s boasting that Soviet workers were superior and the Soviet Union would soon surpass the US Nixon said, “But these men, Soviet and American, work together well for peace…This is the way it should be.”[1] Because Nixon lost the 1960 election to John F. Kennedy he was not immediately able to follow up his rhetoric at the kitchen debate with his own foreign policy of détente. During his political hiatus, Nixon used this opportunity to build upon his already impressive foreign policy credentials. From 1963 to 1968 Nixon made highly publicized trips to Europe, Asia, the Middle East, and Africa, meeting important leaders and political officials, familiarizing himself with the pressing foreign policy issues of the day.[2]

    In 1968 Richard Nixon ran as the “law and order” candidate, but his interest was in international issues rather than domestic issues.[3] Historian David Greenberg claims that Nixon wanted to be remembered as a “peacemaker who ended the Vietnam War and relaxed cold war tensions, especially through his China initiative and the improved relations with the Soviet Union known as détente.”[4] These lofty goals of achieving peace in Vietnam and better relations with both China and Russia not only show which issues Nixon believed were most pressing for the country but also his confidence in his ability to conduct foreign relations. Each individual foreign policy goal had its own set of pressures. Examining the Nixon-Kissinger foreign policy superficially, it would appear that rapprochement with China, peace in Vietnam, and détente with the Soviet Union were equally important. Furthermore, on the surface it is not clear which pressure influenced his decision making most: domestic opinion, economic constraints, Congressional pressures, or a relative decline in US military power when compared to the Soviet Union. But upon closer inspection it would appear that Nixon was most concerned with the relative decline of US military power as characterized by the Soviet Union achieving nuclear parity with the US. As a result, Nixon’s main foreign policy priority was to pursue détente with the Soviet Union in order to achieve an arms limitation treaty.
     

    This paper will first give an historiographic overview of the relevant secondary sources on Nixon’s foreign policy while also discussing the use of primary sources. It will then proceed to define key terms to orient the discussion that follows. To place Nixon’s motivations and decision making in context, a brief section on the power-cycle theory of foreign policy will follow. The final section will address how Nixon approached defensive and offensive strategic weapons before exploring the Moscow Summit and the SALT I Treaty.

Historiography 
 
    When discussing Nixon’s foreign policy, two main schools of thought exist on what influenced his foreign policy most: domestic or international considerations. Even within these different schools of thought disagreement persists among historians over which events, pressures, or limitations are important and actually had the greatest influence. Political scientists Richard Stevenson and Robert Litwak agree that Vietnam had a significant impact on how Nixon conducted his foreign policy. Stevenson argues that the US began to shift resources to the buildup of conventional forces to wage the Vietnam War, allowing the Soviet Union to close the missile gap by investing in strategic weapons.[5] Additionally the United States’ position in the Middle East diminished allowing the Soviet Union to fill the vacuum, specifically in Algeria, Egypt, and Syria.[6] Litwak, on the other hand, believes that the Nixon Doctrine, as a way to cope with the new limitations of American power, was a direct result of the Vietnam War, which was the first time in the twentieth century that American military power was unable to successfully exert political influence abroad.[7] Litwak also believes that the Vietnam War caused a shift from a bipolar world to a multipolar world, giving the United States more latitude to conduct foreign policy.[8] By contrast, Stevenson argues that despite the rise of other powers economically or politically, like China, Japan, and West Germany, it was still a bipolar world strategically divided between the US and Soviet Union.[9] Historian Longin Pastusiak presents a more general decline of American power; economic and military decline compared to the Soviet Union, as well as political and economic advancement by allies in Western Europe and Japan.[10] Cold War historian John Lewis Gaddis argues that Nixon was motivated by balance of power considerations, particularly in promoting parity in strategic weapons to ease tensions between the Soviet Union and United States.[11]


    Stevenson also makes a general argument about détente, claiming that it is a cumulative enterprise.[12] Therefore, when Nixon pursued détente—what Stevenson calls “Moscow Détente”—he owed its success to the three periods of détente which came before, the “spirit of Geneva,” the “spirit of Camp David,” and “Post-Missile Crisis Detente.” Moscow Détente, however, differed from the earlier periods of détente because it lasted significantly longer—almost four years as opposed to fifteen months, at most—and more substantial progress was achieved. [13] Stevenson attributes the success achieved during Moscow Détente to it not being based on ‘atmospherics’ like the previous three periods had been.[14] 

    Similarly, those historians who believe that domestic issues most significantly influenced Nixon’s foreign policy disagree on what placed the greatest pressure on him. American political historian John Robert Greene argues that domestic politics constrained Nixon’s ability to effectively conduct foreign policy; for the first time in 120 years the Democrats controlled both the House and the Senate and introduced bills, like the Vietnam disengagement bill, which made it difficult for the Republican Nixon to make progress in peace negotiations.[15] International historian Jeremi Suri and historian William Bundy claim that domestic pressure was what actually constrained Nixon’s politics. Suri argues that Nixon was forced to respond to direct social action, like the civil rights movement, women’s liberation movement, and anti-war protest.[16] Alternatively, Bundy argues that the public pressure had a more indirect impact by placing pressure on senators and representatives to affect foreign policy by cutting funds for the nuclear program, for example. [17] 

    This paper will build from Stevenson’s argument that the world remained bipolar. And, although the paper will agree that the Vietnam War caused the United States to fall behind in strategic weapons it will argue that the Soviet Union achieving parity was the main reason for Nixon to pursue détente. Gaddis’s argument that Nixon’s foreign policy was motivated by balance of power considerations, which Nixon believed could be achieved through arms limitation treaties, will be used as well. Greene’s and Bundy’s arguments that Congress placed constraints on Nixon’s foreign policy will be pursued in-so-far as it limited the defense budget and the United States’ strategic weapons, further motivating Nixon to pursue arms limitation negotiations to prevent the Soviet Union from achieving strategic superiority.

    Primary sources include memoirs from both Richard Nixon and Henry Kissinger (Nixon’s National Security Advisor), National Security Decision Memoranda, and contemporary articles from the New York Times. Reflections from Nixon and Kissinger, along with the National Security Decision Memoranda, will reveal what they, as policy makers, believed were the most important issues facing national security at the time. Conversely, newspaper articles will show how the public responded to the Nixon administration’s foreign policy and highlight issues that the public believed was most important. Public sentiment itself can be a powerful limit to power, but it can also be reflected in Congress, which can place further constraints on policy making power of the administration.

Defining Détente
 
    Important to understanding Nixon’s foreign policy is to have a clear conception of the terms used when discussing arms limitation talks and détente. Generally speaking, Nixon’s foreign policy could be characterized by détente—usually defined as the relaxation of tensions between two nations, in this case the US and Soviet Union.[18] Stevenson provides two ways to think about détente, as a process and as a condition. Détente as a condition of relations between two nations should be understood as residing in the middle of a spectrum of tensions from high to low—war, cold war, détente, entente, and alliance. This definition of détente includes not only tensions eased from cold war to détente, but also escalated from entente to détente, conflicting with the traditional definition of detente.[19] To understand détente as a process it is implied that the easing of tensions between two already friendly nations could be considered détente, though this seems counter intuitive.[20] Stevenson provides a more careful definition of détente to capture more accurately the changes in the dynamics of the relationship between two nations when détente is occurring. Stevenson’s definition is as follows: “the process of easing of tension between states whose interests are so radically divergent that reconciliation is inherently limited.”[21] So the conditional aspect of increased tensions between two states must already exist for the process of easing that tension to result in détente.
     
    Three periods of détente had occurred before Nixon could pursue his own in 1969. The first of these periods known as the “spirit of Geneva,” emerged as tensions between the Soviet Union and United State appeared to be escalating to a potentially dangerous level. By 1955 both President Eisenhower and Soviet First Secretary Nikita Khrushchev, having secured their position of leadership and wishing to avoid a nuclear confrontation, initiated the first summit between major powers since the Second World War. [22] Though the spirit of Geneva lasted only about a year it did reestablish communication between the USSR and US for the first time since World War II, and it confirmed a mutual desire to avoid nuclear war.[23] The following period of détente, the “spirit of Camp David,” between the same two leaders marked the first time a Soviet leader had visited the US, but it achieved nothing noteworthy and only lasted a few months in 1959.[24] The spirit of Camp David détente was more heavily based on atmospherics and “personal diplomacy”—Eisenhower and Khrushchev essentially willed détente to occur—so when the U-2 incident occurred, an American spy plane was shot down over Soviet airspace, the period of détente did not have a strong foundation and came to an end.[25]The third period, “Post-Missile Crisis Détente,” between Khrushchev and President John F. Kennedy, was a reaction to how close to war the United States and Soviet Union came as a result of the Cuban Missile Crisis. This period of detente lasted from 1963 to 1964, though it had no clear end and an attitude of peaceful coexistence persisted, and more importantly resulted in the establishment of a Hotline between the US and USSR and the signing of the Test-Ban Treaty and Non-Proliferation Treaty.[26] From these periods of détente a dialog was established which Nixon would utilize and it was shown that concrete results could be the product of détente, particularly in limiting and regulating strategic weapons.
 
    Détente was not Nixon’s only foreign policy objective and to achieve his various goals he also used linkage. Kissinger believed that two kinds of linkage existed. The first was when two separate negotiation objectives are linked intentionally so as to use one as leverage to achieve the other.[27] An example of the Nixon administration linking two separate objectives in negotiations was using rapprochement with China as leverage in arms limitation discussions with the Soviet Union. The second kind of linkage was a product of the nature of the Cold War. Because the world was interconnected through economic and alliance systems the actions of one state, especially a major power, in one region would reverberate and have effects on other areas.[28] The administration also used linkage in this sense to couple progress in arms and trade agreements with the Soviet Union to bring stability to the Middle East and peace in Vietnam. More generally, when the Nixon administration was conducting foreign policy it was seeking to connect political issues with strategic issues, to achieve a lasting period of détente.[29] To truly ease tensions between the Soviet Union and the US, it was not sufficient to resolve only strategic issues when there were underlying political issues that were a more fundamental source of tension between the two nations. Easing these national security concerns as a result of strategic issues was a necessary prerequisite for the resolution of political issues to be advanced.
 
    If linkage was a prioritization of diplomatic issues, the Nixon Doctrine was a prioritization of military obligations. The Nixon Doctrine was an “asymmetrical response” of playing to the United States military strengths to compensate for shortcomings and depending on allies to meet the needs that the US was unable to.[30] Not only had it become clear in 1968 that the US would not be able to achieve victory in Vietnam due to the erosion of popular support as a result of the Tet Offensive, but it obviously did not have the military capabilities to unilaterally ensure its interests were protected abroad.[31] Instead the US would channel its influence through regional strategic defense systems to shift the burden of containment away from the United States and to regional powers.[32] The Nixon administration hoped that détente with the Soviet Union would create stability in the periphery so that the shift of responsibilities to regional allies would transition smoothly.[33]
 
    The Vietnam War also impacted on economy of the US and as a result federal spending—importantly the funding of the development of nuclear weapons. The Vietnam War spurred inflation and deflated the US dollar, pressuring Congress to cut the defense budget.[34] Until Nixon’s presidency, the US had enjoyed nuclear supremacy—having significantly more nuclear weapons than one’s opponent. Nuclear sufficiency—the number of nuclear weapons needed to decimate another nation—had already been achieved by both the United States and Soviet Union. Now, with the increased production of nuclear weapons by the Soviet Union and the new budgetary constraints for the US Defense Department, the Nixon administration struggled to accept nuclear parity—having roughly the same nuclear capabilities—with the Soviet Union and the implications this would have on foreign policy.
 
    On the other side of the diplomatic table, the Soviet Union had been advocating for peaceful coexistence with the United States since Khrushchev first formalized it in 1956.[35] By the 1970s, under the regime of Leonid Brezhnev in the Soviet Union, the meaning of peaceful coexistence had shifted. For the Soviet Union, peaceful coexistence meant that war was not the inevitable result of competition between two countries with opposing social structures.[36] In the US liberals not only accepted the legitimacy of the idea of peaceful coexistence but believed it was necessary because the arms race was too costly and unwinnable. Conservatives, on the other hand, had a deep-seated distrust of the Soviet Union and subscribed to “peace through strength.”[37]

Diplomatic Theory behind Détente

    Some political scientists claim that early in the Cold War containment policy became closely tied with negotiating from a position of strength.[38] Stevenson broadens this claim to apply to all countries, but tempers it in another way by arguing that the “perception of strength” need only require a “minimum degree of confidence in national security.”[39] Stevenson’s definition does not seem to clash with intuition quite like the original claim made by political scientists. Strength can be measured in many different ways—economic, political, and by conventional and strategic military means—but when entering into arms control negotiations it would seem that both nations could not approach from a position of strength in military power. Though both nations could approach negotiations feeling relatively confident with the position of their national security. The irony of approaching negotiations from a position of strength is that at the beginning of the Cold War the US was in this position, but policy makers postponed negotiations waiting to attain this position of strength, allowing the Soviet Union the time it needed to increase its own strength.[40] Stevenson’s definition does seem to be a necessary preexisting condition for negotiations to begin, but it does not explain what would push a nation to pursue negotiations. 

 

    One such push factor could be that if one nation realizes that its power was in relative decline, then it may pursue negotiations to prevent itself from falling behind its competitors. The power cycle theory alludes to this type of motivation in diplomatic relations. Political scientists Brock Tessman and Steve Chan theorize that a power in decline could benefit from a preventive war while a rising power would be inclined to postpone a coming war as long as possible.[41] Preventive war was not an option for the Nixon administration as the Soviet Union had already attained nuclear sufficiency. The introduction of nuclear weapons had made war between the United States and Soviet Union a deadly endeavor for either side. If war was not an option for defending one’s supremacy, then it would seem that diplomacy ought to be used to the same end.

    Nixon and Kissinger had another goal they were pursuing that pushed them to enter negotiations with the Soviet Union: balance of power. Kissinger believed that establishing a balance of power between the Soviet Union and United States was necessary for peace.[42] Another proponent of the power cycle theory, political scientist Young-Kwan Yoon, posits that global stability is achieved through a balance of power, and although stability usually implies peace, balance of power has not been sufficient to prevent major wars. [43]


    At the time of détente, The United States had a minimal sense of national security, as Stevenson argues is required to pursue negotiations. US power also appeared to be in relative decline, giving Nixon and Kissinger reason to believe that it was in the United States’ best interest to pursue détente to prevent further decline of American power. And finally, Nixon and Kissinger’s belief that the balance of power would ensure peace and order suggests that a position of strength was not a prerequisite for negotiations nor was it an objective of negotiations.

Other Policy Considerations

    Though Nixon entered office hoping to achieve détente with the Soviet Union there were other issue which required his attention as well. In 1968, only months before Nixon was elected president, the North Vietnamese launched a major offensive, the Tet Offensive. Though the US military touted the Tet Offensive as a military victory, claiming that the South Vietnamese performed admirably, it was a political victory for the North Vietnamese.[44] The images of North Vietnamese troops in the courtyard of the US embassy, the center of American power in South Vietnam, became symbolic of the deteriorating situation for the US in Vietnam. Lunched in an election year, the North Vietnamese offensive cast into doubt the Johnson administration’s reports that the US was winning the war and victory was close at hand.[45] That same year a US Army Company, under the command of Lieutenant William Calley, committed atrocities in the South Vietnamese village of Mỹ Lai, raping and murdering the civilians who lived there. When the Mỹ Lai Massacre was revealed to the American public in 1969, Americans began to question the morality of the Vietnam War as well.[46] In early 1969 Nixon began a bombing campaign of Cambodia code named “Menu” to take out the Ho Chi Minh trail running through Laos and Cambodia and North Vietnamese sanctuaries in Cambodia, from which the North Vietnamese army raided South Vietnam.[47] In 1970 Nixon expanded the war into Cambodia to eliminate the North Vietnamese sanctuaries, and in 1971 further expanded it into Laos to cut off the Ho Chi Minh Trail.[48] A second major offensive by the North Vietnamese army, began on March 30, 1972, named the Easter Offensive attacked on three fronts and initially made major gains.[49] By mid-September the South Vietnamese army retook most of the territory taken by the North Vietnamese.[50] All the while Nixon was implementing “Vietnamization,” transitioning the burden of military operations from the US military to the South Vietnamese military, allowing Nixon to gradually withdraw US troops.[51] The North Vietnamese coordinated their major offensives, the Tet and Easter Offensive, with American election years, forcing the war to be a political issue and blurring the lines between foreign and domestic policy.

    Some scholars argue that the distinction between foreign and domestic policy is not a true distinction at all, and there is a complicated causal relationship between the two. In this sense, détente could be thought of as a direct response to the social disruption that occurred during the 1960s, and 1968 specifically, as a means of subduing these internal pressures.[52] Antiwar protests persisted through to Nixon’s presidency, and even escalated as US troops invaded Cambodia. Nixon hoped that his efforts towards peace with the Soviet Union and China would not only appease the demonstrators but could give him leverage in peace negotiations with North Vietnam. Antiwar protests pressured Nixon to move his Cambodia update to the beginning of June from the end of the month in 1970, and at the same time the Senate was moving to cut funds for operations in Cambodia.[53] Domestic pressures became such that, by the spring of 1970, Nixon was scrambling for a foreign policy success going into midterm elections in November.[54]

    When Nixon entered office, the Democrats held majorities in both houses. This situation only worsened in the 1970 midterm election. Not only did the Democrats maintain their control of both houses of Congress, but the Republicans suffered a net loss of seven congressmen.[55] By the end of 1970 it was irrelevant that both houses of Congress were held by Democrats; Nixon’s heavy-handed approach to get the anti-ballistic missile (ABM) legislation passed and his nomination of the unqualified Clement F. Haynsworth to the Supreme Court alienated Republican and Democrats alike, to the point where there was effectively no relationship between Congress and the White House.[56] Although Nixon was barely able to get the ABM legislation passed, he was not able to get Haynsworth approved, with seventeen Republicans voting against the nomination.[57] The bipartisan disapproval of the Nixon Administration made it difficult for him to achieve his goals, especially in foreign policy. In addition to the resistance during the ABM debate, Congress repeatedly introduced bills that would cut the defense budget or end the United States military involvement in Vietnam. To prevent the president from involving the United States in another conflict like Vietnam Congress passed the War Powers Act in 1973 to rein in some of the authority granted to the executive to conduct war in the Gulf of Tonkin Resolution passed almost a decade earlier.[58]

    The state of the US economy also had an effect on congressional policies as well as foreign and domestic policy. The economic policies of previous administrations had created an environment which inherently limited Nixon’s policy options. Public and foreign policy of the 1960s accelerated the balance-of-payment problem which began in 1950. As the European and Japanese markets rebounded from the disruption of World War II, American imports increased while American capital flowed from domestic to foreign markets. [59] The guns and butter policies proposed by President Lyndon B. Johnson—his Great Society legislation and the Vietnam War—exacerbated the balance-of-payment problem and resulted in inflation.[60] The economic strain which resulted from the Vietnam War was sufficient to dissuade both hawks and doves alike to support a “major troop commitment or a large reserve call-up” when Johnson called for one in 1968.[61] This is the economic situation that Nixon inherited and it did not improve under his administration, by 1969 the economy was moving towards stagflation.[62] To add to Nixon’s economic woes the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) had threatened to use oil as a political and economic weapon. In response to this threat NATO allies did not allow American planes headed for Israel use their airspace or use American military supply depots in Europe.[63] As a result of the US aiding Israel in the Yom Kippur War in 1973 OPEC followed through with its threat and placed an embargo on all oil to be shipped to the US.[64] As a result of the oil embargo there were lines at gas stations, and it became a central point of public policy.[65] The oil embargo could have created more problems than just domestic strife; it could have had a more significant impact on the economy, and also affected national security in the form of an energy crisis.

Nuclear Power: American Decline and Soviet Ascendance
 
    Throughout the 1960s the United States had experienced a relative decline in power, and several events during Nixon’s presidency revealed the limitations on US power. The first incident occurred in 1969 when an American EC-121 patrol plane was shot down by North Korean fighter planes, killing the entire crew of thirty-one. The American plane was on a routine patrol, during the day, outside of North Korean territorial waters; these patrols had been conducted for years without any complaint from North Korea.[66] Instead of retaliating, Nixon’s response was limited to requiring future patrols to have fighter escorts. In coming to this decision, Nixon had to consider the repercussions that retaliation against North Korean would have on relations with the Soviet Union and on the conduct of the Vietnam War.[67]


    The second incident happened about a year later when a U-2 spy plane conducting surveillance of Cuba revealed the construction of new barracks, communications facilities, and SAM batteries at the Cienfuegos naval base. Additional intelligence revealed four Soviet ships in the area, the Ura-class submarine tender, two barges to handle the radioactive waste from a submarine’s nuclear reactor, and a nuclear submarine. This information suggested that the Soviets were violating the post-Cuban Missile Crisis “understanding” reached in 1962 and planned again to install offensive weapons in Cuba.[68] Kissinger was able, through his diplomatic channel with Anatoly Dobrynin, to get assurances that the Soviet Union was not placing offensive weapons in Cuba.[69] The specifics of this agreement were ambiguous, though. Was its intent to limit nuclear submarines carrying conventional weapons or diesel submarines carrying nuclear weapons? As a result of this ambiguity, both types of submarines continued to port at Cienfuegos, and so the agreement came to prohibit nuclear submarines armed with nuclear weapons.[70] Although the Soviet Union failed to establish a permanent base from which they could dock nuclear-powered submarines with nuclear weapons to counter American forward strategic missile bases in Europe their willingness to blatantly violate the 1962 agreement shows how much their confidence in their nuclear abilities had grown in under ten years.

     Even the United States’ predominance over her allies seemed to be splintering. With the election of Willy Brandt—a Social Democrat—in Germany in 1969 Germany began to pursue its own policy of détente with the Soviet Union called Ostpolitik.[71] Both Nixon and Kissinger believed that this would weaken the NATO alliance and give the appearance that Nixon was not the leader of a cohesive anti-Soviet bloc in Europe. By leveraging this split the Soviets could be able to make advances which would threaten Western security.[72] French president Charles de Gaulle also pursued the interests of his own country during the 1960s. In 1964, France established direct diplomatic ties with China, subverting the bipolar Soviet-America partition of the globe.[73] Also during this period, France developed its own nuclear arsenal that would effectively be its own independent strike force.[74] This increasing independence of France from American hegemony culminated when, in 1966, de Gaulle relieved France of its military obligations to NATO, though he still retained France’s political position within the alliance.[75] The independent action of France made it appear that the United States was losing control over its allies.

    As US power seemed to be declining, the Soviet Union seemed to be accruing power. When Alexander Dubček was elected the premier of Czechoslovakia, he began to call for “greater freedoms and more liberal internal practices.”[76] Despite making assurances that he would not make any external policy changes and would continue to be a full, active member of the Warsaw Pact, these changes were still a threat to Soviet predominance in Eastern Europe.[77] In 1968, Soviet leaders took steps to reassert their dominance in the region by sending Warsaw Pact troops to occupy Prague. The limited response of the US and its NATO allies to this action reassured the Kremlin of its security in its sphere of influence, furthermore, the Kremlin’s ability to protect socialism in the Eastern Bloc had been tacitly approved by the West. [78] The Soviet Union was looking to also expand its influence beyond Eastern Europe and was giving military aid to several Arab states, namely Egypt and Syria.[79]


    Additionally, the strategic superiority that the United States had enjoyed for the entire postwar period was surrendered in 1967 by a self-imposed limitation of Minutemen and Titan intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) and Polaris submarine launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs).[80] At the rate that the Soviet Union was producing missiles, the number of missiles capable of reaching the US by 1969 would match that of the United States’ total arsenal and, continuing at that pace through the 1970s, would come to exceed that of the US.[81] The Soviet Union also already had in place an ABM system while Nixon was trying to get legislation to approve an ABM system in the US pushed through Congress.[82] A functional ABM system could give the Soviet Union first strike capabilities without the fear of an effective retaliatory strike by the United States. Eliminating second-strike capabilities of the US would significantly shifting the balance and dynamics of power in Moscow’s favor. The successful test of a Soviet multiple independent targeted reentry vehicle (MIRV) in the early 1970s showed that not only would the Soviet Union be able to match the United State quantitatively but qualitatively as well.[83] The Soviet Union, with Warsaw Pact troops, had a larger conventional force than the US and its NATO allies as well. If the Soviet Union were also to gain superiority in strategic weapons, especially with a functioning ABM system, then the security of Western Europe would be called into question and US national security would be at risk as well.

The Consolidation of Foreign Policy Power in the White House

    Foreign policy was a primary concern for Nixon, and he wanted to have as much control over its development and implementation as possible. Part of the reason for his desire for control was his distrust of the State Department, which he developed during his tenure as vice president under President Eisenhower. Nixon believed that liberal bureaucrats in the State Department were serving their own self-interests instead of that of the country and the president.[84] His distrust of the State Department and his desire for foreign policy to be directed from the White House was made evident by his appointments. Henry Kissinger was appointed as National Security Advisor before Nixon selected a Secretary of State.[85] Nixon’s appointment to the position of Secretary of State, William P. Rogers, further reveals his motives. Rogers was appointed because of his inexperience in foreign affairs, although Nixon defended his choice by saying that Rogers would dutifully represent Nixon in both the State Department and when meeting with foreign officials.[86]

    The restructuring of the National Security Council occurred very early in Nixon’s presidency, on January 20, 1969, and was one of the first directives from the Security Council, in National Security Decision Memorandum 2 (NSDM).[87] Kissinger also reorganized how the Security Council would conduct its business, dividing memos between National Security Study Memoranda—for issues that needed research—and NSDM—those issues which were reported to the president.[88] This restructuring would shift foreign policy decision making from the State Department to the White House.[89] As a result of this shift from the State Department to the National Security Council, Kissinger was able to gain a great deal of influence over foreign policy as he was adjacent to the President and met with him regularly.[90]

    Nixon also wanted his foreign policy to be isolated from public influence. Nixon was a shrewd politician, and, although he knew that the two could not be totally separated, he did not want the public to dictate foreign policy. Early in his presidency Nixon wrote on a State Department report on Middle East policy that referred to domestic political considerations that the security interests of the nation, not domestic considerations, would affect his policy and that he did not want domestic considerations to be referenced in future reports.[91] He later wrote that leadership by consensus can work for domestic policy but not for foreign policy. In Nixon’s mind leadership by consensus selects the popular option, not the correct option, and selection of the correct option is entirely important in foreign policy, even if it was unpopular.[92] Nixon was also secretive in the formulation and implementation of foreign policy. Several NSDMs concluded with reminders of the importance to avoid leaks and limit public comments, with emphasis added as arms limitation talks approached.[93] Nixon’s desire to control public comments and limit leaks suggests a concern that public knowledge of this policy could result in pressure that would unavoidably affect foreign policy. Although Nixon did not ultimately believe that foreign policy would affect the outcome of elections, he believed that the important issues, like “crime, busing, drugs, welfare, [and] inflation” had a more direct impact on the public and would be the issues to decide an election.[94] Leaks regarding the conduct of foreign policy and national security issues could further constrain Nixon’s ability to effectively conduct foreign policy and gain the trust of foreign leaders.

    Congress has a constitutionally mandated role in foreign policy, namely the senatorial approval of treaties, but also the power to appropriate funds to the defense budget. Nixon knew that he would have to work with Congress if he was to achieve his foreign policy goals, but again he sought to limit their involvement. For Nixon the domestic battle for ABMs was a challenge to assert his “control over foreign policy and [dominance over] Congress.”[95] Kissinger recalled that the standard practice for briefing Congress on sensitive military operations involved only key members of Congress.[96] Despite Nixon’s desire, and efforts, to limit Congress’s involvement in foreign policy, it was still able to affect policy, frustrating Nixon. When Congress introduced ten separate resolutions to withdraw troops from Vietnam in 1969, Nixon complained that the behavior of Congress was preventing him from conducting “meaningful negotiations.”[97]


Strategic Arms Limitation and Balance of Power


    To begin conducting foreign policy, the National Security Council first had to determine strategic needs of the United States. NSDM 16 laid out four criteria for strategic sufficiency. This strategic sufficiency was only in the event of a nuclear attack, but strategic sufficiency would also be necessary for successful arms limitation talks with the Soviet Union. First, the United States would have to maintain a second-strike capability, which would deter any attacks on American strategic forces. Second, and related to the first, the United States would have to maintain forces to deter a Soviet first strike in a crisis. Third, the criteria for strategic sufficiency is to maintain parity with the Soviet Union to be able to match destructive capabilities. Lastly, the development of a defense network to minimize damage from “small attacks or accidental launches” was needed.[98] Of the four criteria for strategic sufficiency the first three had already been achieved, as suggested by the word “maintain.” The final criterion was different, though, and likely referred to the ABM program specifically. Missile defense was an area of the arms race where the US lagged behind the Soviet Union.


    The Soviet advantage in ABMs concerned the Nixon administration. If one nation had a functional ABM system then it could successfully launch a first strike, targeting and eliminating the strategic capabilities of its opponent, greatly reducing the risk of a successful retaliatory strike. With the opponent’s strategic capabilities neutralized, the conventional forces could be employed without risk of further escalation. Nixon also claimed that if the United States were to enter arms negotiations without an ABM system as a bargaining chip he might be forced to give up something else in its place.[99] 

    The ABM program was not popular with the urban public and congress was looking to cut defense spending, making it a challenge to get the program approved.[100] Experts called into question the efficacy of an ABM system as well, and there were fears that it would exacerbate the arms race.[101] Despite the intense opposition to ABM legislation, it finally passed in 1969 with Vice President Spiro Agnew casting the deciding vote in the Senate.[102]

    If it is true that a minimum sense of national security is necessary to enter into negotiations, and it is also true that Soviet superiority in ABMs could give them first strike capabilities, then it would seem that without an ABM system the US would not be able to enter negotiations with the Soviet Union. Although, according to Kissinger, the mere potential of an active US ABM system was worrisome to the Soviet Union because the United States’ technological advantage would quickly result in superiority for the US.[103] All Nixon needed was the threat of an active ABM system to enter negotiations and use as a bargaining chip.

        The administration made limiting ABMs a priority in arms limitation talks. In the initial memorandum preparing different options for SALT, two of the four policy options were to set ABM levels at zero, or at the National Command Authority (NCA) level so that ABM sites were only stationed outside each nation’s capital.[104] Nixon and Kissinger wanted to link discussions on offensive and defensive weapons systems, but priority was given was to defensive systems. As one memoranda said, negotiations could “concentrate on defensive systems” for first few weeks of negotiations before offensive and defensive negotiations should be “considered equally.”[105] This emphasis by the administration on defensive weapons negotiations, and the ultimate goal of elimination of ABMs, suggests Nixon’s concern over the Soviet advantage. ABM systems did not only comprise of interceptor missiles and launchers, they also included “large phased-array radar” systems.[106] For the administration it seems that the only destabilizing element of the ABM system was the actual missile component. Nixon was willing to allow the Soviet Union to continue building its radar system—the Hen House—so long as it was not used in conjunction with an ABM system and the United States had the right to “equivalency.”[107] Equivalency could be understood in terms of parity, and suggests that Nixon believed that parity should be maintained in all aspects of strategic weapons, including radar systems to detect missile launches.

    The Johnson administration’s answer to the Soviet ABM system was to overwhelm it with MIRVs, which would allow the US to launch more individual warheads without needing to increase the number of missiles.[108] In MIRVs specifically the US had superiority, but in ICBMs the Soviet Union had achieved parity. The test of the Soviet SS-9 missile in early 1971 meant that the gap in MIRV superiority enjoyed by the US could close as well. The SS-9 missile’s size would allow it to carry either the largest warhead in existence or several smaller warheads at the same time, though experts believed it would be about five years before the Soviet Union could master MIRV technology.[109]


    As concerned as Nixon was about defensive weapons systems, limiting offensive weapons was also a high priority. The Soviet Union had reached parity with the United States, and if it continued to expand its missile production at the rate it was then it would soon surpass the US in missile capacity. Nixon believed that security and stability were not possible if one nuclear power felt insecure as the result of the other having strategic superiority.[110] To cap the number of total offensive weapons would be to eliminate a source of competition between the Soviet Union and United States. The hope of an arms limitation agreement was that through the elimination of the source of competition in the arms race by way of parity of strategic weapons both nations would have a relatively strong sense of national security. There would be a balance of power, and ultimately peace and stability.

    Initially the administration sought a general freeze of ICBM launcher, SLBMs, and strategic heavy bombers.[111] But limiting the number of offensive missiles does not necessarily cap the destructive capabilities of missiles. So, in an effort to eliminate the arms race, it would shift efforts from missile production to missile size and payload capacity. The Soviet Union was already ahead of the US in respect to missile size with the SS-9 missile. Later in the SALT talk the administration’s focus shifted to address these issues. NSDM 158 advised that it should be agreed upon that “launchers for older, heavy ICBMs…cannot be converted to accept Modern Large Ballistic Missiles (MLBMs).”[112] This memorandum also suggested that a maximum depth and diameter of launchers, as well as the classification of heavy strategic ballistic missiles, should be defined and agreed upon.[113]

The Channel and SALT Negotiations


    Nixon’s National Security Advisor Henry Kissinger and Soviet Ambassador to the US Anatoly Dobrynin conducted most of the interaction between the Soviet Union and the US through what would later be called ‘the Channel’.[114] According to Kissinger, these two men were given the authority to speak on behalf of their respective governments on major issues. When it seemed that progress could be made on an issue it was moved to official diplomatic channels, and if an issue reached an impasse there it would be brought back to the Channel.[115] The idea behind the Channel was not only to prevent deadlocks on the official level of diplomatic interaction but to act as a sounding board of sorts, to “unofficially” present ideas and gauge the other’s receptiveness to the idea. It was through this connection that détente, and more specifically limitation of strategic arms discussions, began when the Channel was established in 1969.

    After the Channel was established, discussions on arms limitation began, switching between official channels—which also switched between Vienna and Helsinki—and the unofficial Kissinger-Dobrynin Channel. At times both the official and unofficial channels were open and conducting negotiations simultaneously, leading to confusion. The negotiation on arms limitations lasted until May 1972, when the SALT Treaty was adopted. The amount of time it took to come to an agreement on offensive and defensive strategic weapons suggest the complexity of the issues that were being discussed and how far each side had to come to reach a common understanding.

    The Soviet Union too was looking to improve relations with the United States. A new weapons program would put further strain on an already stressed Soviet economy.[116] With a decreased military budget the Soviet government hoped to reinvest in its domestic economy.[117] In addition to an economic incentive to enter into arms limitation talks, the Soviet Union was experiencing a grain shortage at the beginning of the 1970s, due to crop failures and a generally ineffective agricultural system.[118] In this instance the needs of the Soviet Union and interests of the US aligned. The United States had a surplus of crops to be sold, and in 1971 Nixon authorized a grain sale to the USSR.[119] This gesture of good will showed that the two superpowers could come to a mutually beneficial agreement. Kissinger also suggested that the United States offering to limit their ABM program served to further persuade the Soviets to enter into SALT talks.[120]

    The priorities of either super-power were not as convergent in the case of arms limitations. The Soviet Union sought to limit defensive strategic weapons whereas the United States’ goal was to limit offensive strategic weapons, although Nixon ultimately wanted to link offensive and defensive strategic weapons. In the first round of negotiations in Helsinki, the Soviet Union proposed a ban on ABMs and a moratorium on MIRV testing. Negotiations ran into a fundamental disagreement early on, because the Soviets wanted to define “strategic” as any weapon that could reach the other’s territory. This definition of strategic would include all of the United States’ aircraft based Western Europe and on aircraft carriers while excluding all of the Soviet missiles and bombers which could strike Western Europe.[121] For Nixon to accept this definition of strategic weapons would be to effectively abandon his European allies.

    While trying to reach a common agreement with the Soviet Union, the Nixon administration also had to work with a hostile Congress. In 1969, in response to Congressional pressures, Nixon ordered the Sentinel ABM system’s deployment to be stopped.[122] Despite being a small percentage of the defense budget the ABM system was a visible program and as a result it was targeted as wasteful and diverting funds from domestic programs by the Senate.[123] Congressional attacks on the defense budget did not end with the ABM system; MIRVs, the B-1 bomber, new aircraft carriers and submarines, the F-14 and F-15 fighter jets, and the Cheyenne helicopters were under threat of having their funding cut as well.[124] Congressional efforts to cut the defense budget could have reaffirmed Nixon’s belief that an arms limitation treaty with the Soviet Union was not only in the best interest of the country but necessary. Limiting the arms race would relieve the pressure to continue to expand the United States missile program, decreasing the amount of capital necessary to fund the program.

    Congress’s involvement with the SALT discussions also created complications with the progression of negotiations. The Soviet Union had agreed to the American proposal on ABMs to be stationed only in each nation’s capital. The problem arose because the Nixon administration had already asked for the funds to build three ABM sites, but none of which could be located in the nation’s capital.[125] The ABM agreement continued to be a complicated issue for the Nixon administration. On January 17, 1971 the New York Times ran an article that argued that the American delegation should drop linking defensive weapons with offensive weapons. It went on to argue that coming to an offensive agreement was proving to be too difficult, and they should accept the ABM agreement as it then stood.[126] The author of the article believed that the US should get what it could when it could from the negotiations rather than risking it all for a more comprehensive agreement. Nixon thought that it would be foolish to give the Soviets what they wanted without getting anything in return because it would only be more difficult to get the USSR to return to negotiations and make concessions to the US at a later date.

    External issues threatened to derail the SALT talks as well. The Vienna negotiations in 1970 were interrupted because of the crisis in Cambodia and Dobrynin was called back to Moscow.[127] Parts of the Ho Chi Minh Trail supply line of the North Vietnamese Army and Viet Cong ran through Cambodia and sanctuaries were established as a base of operations for raids into South Vietnam. The US had begun the “Menu” bombing campaign of Cambodia in 1969. In April 1970 intelligence showed that the North Vietnamese Army was pushing westward, threatening the sovereignty of the Cambodian government. In May Nixon ordered a joint US-South Vietnamese incursion into Cambodia to attack the North Vietnamese bases.[128] The news of the American incursion into Cambodia sparked a new round of antiwar protests; one of them at Kent State University in Ohio resulted in the death of four students on May 4.[129] Two years later Kissinger expressed concern that American bombing of Vietnam might again derail détente with the Soviet Union.[130] Kissinger showed a willingness to minimize the issue of Vietnam to focus on Soviet-American bilateral issues, abandoning linkage to save the summit.[131]

    On May 20, 1971 Nixon announced that his administration was going to work with Moscow to come to an agreement on offensive and defensive weapons.[132] This effort culminated in the SALT agreement of 1972, which limited ABMs to two sites and imposed a five year freeze on land and sea based offensive strategic weapons to mid-1972 levels.[133] The SALT I agreement was quickly criticized as instituting a quantitative missile gap for five years that favored the Soviet Union.[134] Kissinger defended the parameters of the SALT I agreement arguing that the US lost very little, especially in comparison to what the Soviet Union lost. According to Kissinger the Soviet Union had been building 200 new launchers a year prior to the agreement and to meet the requirements of the agreement had to dismantle around 210 older ICBMs.[135] The US, on the other hand, had no new missile programs and Congress was unlikely to approve a new one. Additionally, the Joint Chiefs of Staff decided to wait for the Trident submarine and missile which would begin production after the five-year freeze had expired. Furthermore, the agreement did not include US strategic bombers, land or sea based aircraft in Europe and the Pacific, or the nuclear weapons of England and France.[136] To Kissinger the SALT agreement actually gave the United States the breathing room to correct the imbalance in strategic weapons that came about during the 1960s.[137] Moreover, Nixon’s pursuit of détente resulted in real, tangible results. Of the SALT agreement Kissinger said, “[f]or the first time in history two major powers deliberately rested their security on each other’s vulnerability.”[138] The decision for the US and USSR to base their security in mutual vulnerability suggested an inherent trust between the two not to exploit this vulnerability for their own gains and an actual desire for peace.

    Nixon’s effort towards détente produced more substantive agreements between the East and West and lasted longer than any previous period of détente.[139] Despite the achievements produced by this period of détente it was not enough to overcome the underlying tensions which were the cause of the Cold War. Nixon’s détente achieved the success it did and lasted as long as it did because it was not based on atmospherics. But it could be the case that the way in which Nixon and Kissinger conducted the arms limitation talks also detracted from their success. The secretive nature of détente did not build a broad or strong national consensus among liberals or conservatives in support of détente.[140] The perception that the SALT treaty came at the expense of American and Western security, and that the Soviet Union could not be trusted to faithfully uphold its part of an agreement or treaty, added to its unpopularity with the American public.[141]
Conclusion

    Nixon’s presidency was cut short as a result of the arrest of several members of CREEP (the Committee for the Re-Election of the President) for breaking into the Democratic National Headquarters in the Watergate Hotel to plant bugs, June 17, 1972.[142] As a result of the scandal impeachment hearings ensued, but before their completion Nixon resigned, leaving the White House on August 9, 1974.[143] When Gerald Ford took over the presidency for Nixon in 1974, one of his first tasks was to reorganize the White House staff and address domestic policy, but he ordered that Kissinger’s foreign policy remain intact.[144] Kissinger was at the pinnacle of his power, acting as both Secretary of State and National Security Advisor.[145] This allowed Kissinger to make policy propositions to the President as Secretary of State and control the flow of policy through the National Security Council as National Security Advisor.

    The fall of Saigon, and South Vietnam, on April 23, 1975 reverberated through the US changing American perceptions of their country and its foreign policy.[146] The public reaction against Nixon’s foreign policy was so strong that by 1976 Kissinger’s influence within the White House had greatly diminished and Ford dropped détente from his vocabulary in the presidential election that year.[147]

    The effects of the SALT Treaty did have a more lasting impact on American politics though. Shortly after SALT I was signed in 1972, negotiations on SALT II began and lasted until the agreement was signed in 1979. When President Jimmy Carter signed the SALT II Treaty, there was not a great deal of enthusiasm; a New York Times article said that the agreement would do little to end the arms race or address a more pressing security issue, the energy crisis.[148] Détente was viewed not only as an admission of American weakness but an acceptance, and even embrace, of that weakness by the American public.

    In 1980 Ronald Reagan’s presidential campaign was a rejection of the acceptance of the limits of American power. Reagan has many memorable quotes during his time in public office, however, none can more succinctly summarize his approach to relations with the Soviet Union than “trust but verify,” a phrase that was in response to the perceived deception by the Soviet Union during détente and violation of the 1972 ABM treaty .[149] In 1981 Reagan announced his desire to begin Strategic Arms Reduction Talks (START) between the Soviet Union and the US in the place of the SALT treaties that he viewed as disappointing.[150] Reagan adapted another idea from the Nixon era of détente, the Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI), which was essentially a space based anti-ballistic missile system. Reagan claimed that the American development of SDI was not to bankrupt the Soviet Union, pressure them into negotiations, or act as a bargaining chip; however, it ultimately had these effects on the Soviet Union.[151]

    The national security of the United States is among the greatest concerns of the president. Congressional and economic limitations may have been pressures for Nixon to pursue arms negotiations with the Soviet Union but only in so far as they limited the United States’ ability to produce strategic weapons at a rate which would allow them to maintain parity with the Soviet Union. The Vietnam War as well stretched American military capabilities and strained the economy, but similarly this was only significant in that it took funds from strategic weapons developments to invest in conventional military means in order to continue fighting in Vietnam. Rapprochement with China was an end in and of itself but also served to pressure the Soviet Union to enter arms negotiations. The greatest existential threat to American national security was the Soviet Union and the greatest weapon at their disposal was their nuclear arsenal. Soviet strategic superiority would threaten American national security and interests, specifically in Western Europe. To most effectively neutralize this national security threat would be to purse détente with the Soviet Union to achieve an arms limitation agreement.

    On August 7, 1974, as Nixon was working on writing his resignation speech, he called Kissinger at 9 p.m. and asked him to come to the White House. Their conversation over the next hour reminisced about their struggles and their accomplishments over the past five and a half years; in reestablishing relations with the Chinese, easing tensions with the Soviet Union, ending the Vietnam War, and other foreign policy achievements. As they had joyously toasted to their invitation to China three years earlier, Nixon and Kissinger now toasted with remorse the closing of an era without finishing their drinks.[152] Nixon feared that all he had worked towards as president would be lost by his humiliation and resignation. He implored Kissinger, who had been sworn-in as Secretary of State on September 22, 1973, to stay on for the sake of continuity in US foreign policy.[153] Reiterating the point, Nixon briefed his successor, Gerald Ford, to capitalize on the foreign policy momentum that he had created and not allow Moscow or Peking to leverage the situation in their favor.[154] Through this personally trying period of Nixon’s life his concern was still on the national security concerns of the nation. At 9 a.m. on August 9 Nixon began his resignation speech when he came to what he said was the most difficult line he ever had to speak, “[t]herefore, I shall resign the presidency effective at noon tomorrow.”[155] The next day Nixon said his goodbyes to the White House staff and his cabinet before shaking Fords hand, wishing him luck, and leaving the White House.[156]

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The Media has Blind Spots, Not Biases

In July Congress passed a recission bill to claw back $1.1 billion in funding for the Corporation for Public Broadcasting (CPB), the organi...