At this point I have written more than once in favor of adopting a proportional electoral system over our current first-past-the-post (or winner-take-all) system, and even over a ranked choice electoral system. So, I thought it might be a good idea to quickly articulate why my preferences are what they are. To be clear, I do not disfavor a ranked choice system. In fact, I think it is necessary in certain cases when there is not anything to apportion—say in US Senate or Governor elections. And if I had the power to implement a new system of elections in this country with the snap of my fingers, but the only choice was between a ranked choice system and maintaining the status quo, I most definitely would choose the ranked choice system.
Although both a proportional and a ranked choice system are different means to achieve most of the same objectives—increasing ideological representation, increasing voter engagement, and breaking the two-party power structure—ranked choice retains some of the structural advantages for the two parties that exists in our current system. Namely, the two parties have a presence in every state to be competitive in most elections up and down the ballot. This includes donor lists, volunteers, a bench of candidates, relationships with pollsters and advertising agencies, party employees, and anything else needed to run a campaign. This will not necessarily be true of every other party as they may have difficulty even fielding a candidate in every race. The second benefit that the major parties have is name recognition. Voters may know the Libertarian and Green parties, but how many other third-parties can they name? In the 2020 election there were about 90 named third-parties included on ballots across the country. Even if voters recognize the party name, would they know the party's platform? So, even if their primary preference was for a third-party what would voters’ choose as their second choice? Likely the more recognizable candidate/party, which would probably be a Republican or Democrat.
Now you might rightfully point out that most of the structural advantages I just outlined would still be present in a proportional system. However, the last point is where I think these two systems pull apart and a proportional system benefits third parties more. While I can take election results and distribute seats proportionally based on those results, it is more difficult to game-out ranked choice results (and to be fair, I made it easy on myself when apportioning seats by throwing all third-party votes into one bucket which overstates the actual results of any one third-party). This is difficult because while I could make some assumptions about who a voter’s second and third choice may be, voters are idiosyncratic and those assumptions may very well be wrong. Furthermore, when you change the election rules and incentives, voters will change their voting behavior accordingly. To take this one step further, if I were to retroactively apply a ranked choice system to all elections where a majority was not obtained, making assumptions along the way, the results likely would not drastically differ as the two major parties will have a substantial lead—in part because voters were not casting their ballots with a ranked choice system in mind.
With that said, I think we can intuitively work this out. Let’s set up a fairly simple example; there is a state with four districts. The state is roughly split between conservatives and liberals and districts are drawn fairly. After the election is held the vote tally is as follows:
Under our current system two Republicans and two Democrats are elected to the House of Representatives.
But, as I said earlier, if you change the rules of the election, voters will change their behavior. Let's now assume this same state adopted a ranked choice electoral system. With no third party infrastructures in the first or third districts and no candidate pool to pull from, those two districts remain a race between the Republican and Democrat. So, looking at districts 2 and 4 only, the results of the election are:
After the first round no one has an out right majority, and the third-parties did better—15 points better. But they are still last, so when this goes to the next round and the Libertarian votes in District 2 are distributed to their second choice, the Republican, and the Green votes in District 4 are distributed to their second choice, the Democrat, the outcome of the election will be the same. This state will have two Democratic Representatives and two Republican representatives.
This is a simplistic model for illustrative purposes, but we can see how this has played out in reality. Maine adopted a ranked choice electoral system in 2018. Since then it has held two elections for the US Senate and six for US House (three election years for two House seats); electing an Independent and a Republican to the Senate, and two Democratic Representatives each year. In fact, only once in those eight elections has a ballot gone to the second round—on the first ballot for district 2 in 2018 no candidate had a majority and so an instant runoff was held between the Republican and Democratic candidates who had received the most votes. It should also be noted that Angus King is the Independent Senator who was elected in 2018. However, he was an incumbent who previously had identified as an Independent and was caucusing with the Democrats. As such, I do not think we can credit his electoral victory in 2018 to the ranked choice system. In 2022 Alaska joined Maine in adopting a ranked choice system. In that election Alaska sent a Democrat to the House of Representatives and a Republican to the Senate.
Let’s return one more time to our hypothetical state. This time the state has gotten rid of its districts in favor of one, multi-member district with seats distributed proportionately by party to the percentage of votes won. This time the results are as follows:
Based on these proportions, Democrats are awarded two seats and Republicans and Libertarians are awarded one each. Under the other two systems third-parties may have had support in all districts but may not have been able to field a candidate to run in every district. Further, a third-party may have broad support in a state, support enough to win a seat under a proportional system, but not enough in any one district to win a majority.
We should also take a minute to consider what the implications of this are for voters. Voters in Districts 1 and 3 that might support a third-party candidate are forced to either decide between voting for a candidate for one of the parties running or not to vote at all. These voters rightly feel under-represented because they are presented with a false dilemma. The only reason this is any dilemma at all is because our winner-take-all system forces us into the false choice between two ideologies; conservatism as represented by the Republican party and liberalism as represented by the Democratic party. The American electorate is much more diverse than this dichotomy.
The outcome between our second hypothetical and our last hypothetical illustrates how, I believe, a proportional system is more potent in enabling third-parties to gain representation within our government. I should point out, in fairness, that in Maine the third-party candidates did not gain enough votes (even when combined) to win a seat under a proportional system, suggesting an optimism in my final hypothetical. Though, to repeat my refrain, voter behavior may change to a sufficient degree for a third-party to win representation if Maine were to adopt a proportional system instead of a ranked choice system.
When we are considering electoral systems we should not think of them as isolated systems in their individual silos. More voters turn out to vote in Presidential election years, but those additional voters are not only voting for the President, they also cast their vote in Senate and House elections, and on down the ballot. Turnout is generally higher. It stands to reason then, that if we were able to increase voter turnout for one branch of government due to increased representation resulting from a more responsive electoral system, then turnout overall would increase.
As I stated earlier, I believe a ranked choice system is better than our current system. Given time, I may be proven wrong by the electoral results from Maine and Alaska as parties, candidates, and voters adapt to the new system. I hope I am wrong. I hope we begin to see more diverse representation from these states, and as a result increased voter turnout.
It is for the very reason that individual elections affect one another that my ideal would be to adopt a proportional system for state general assemblies and the House of Representatives, and a ranked choice system for Governors and the US Senate. I believe these systems would reinforce one another.
Proportional systems would give third-parties a better shot at gaining representation within the government. By merely winning an election third-parties would gain a credibility with voters that they have struggled to gain in the past. Winning an election would also increase the profile of third-parties so the party and its platform are more familiar to voters and voters would actually be able to see how the party's ideas translate into practical governance.
When it comes time to cast a ranked choice ballot voters are more familiar with third-parties, their candidates, and their platform. Voters also view certain third-parties as more credible after the party has won representation for itself in an election and voters can see how the party operates in the government. Perhaps, then, after the ballots are counted, third-parties have a larger share of votes in the first round and are not the first party eliminated from the ballots. Maybe third-parties are also voters second and third choices above Republicans and Democrats. And so, maybe third-parties win more ranked choice elections.
What I am describing is a virtuous cycle. As third-parties win more elections they become more credible and known. As those parties become more credible and known they win more elections. The more elections that third-parties win the more ideologies and perspectives are represented. As more ideologies and perspectives are represented within the government citizens begin to see themselves better represented in their government and observe more responsive elections. As this perception increases more citizens begin to participate and voter turnout increases. With increased voter turnout, support for third-parties increases, and so on.
But to kick off this cycle something is needed to breakthrough the two parties hold on power. I do not think a ranked choice system is strong enough to do this. Although I believe a proportional system would be able to do this, it has limited applications—you cannot apportion votes for a single Senate seat or Governorship. And while I think a proportional system would still have an effect on these elections, the effect would inherently be limited because the candidate with the plurality of votes would win the election, reinforcing the two party system. Both are needed if we truly want to change our system for the better.
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